Friday, November 05, 2010

Thoughts on the election [Bryan]

Some people have asked for my thoughts on the election, so I guess I will bore you with some post-election analysis. I don't have too much to say. The majority always loses a lot of seats in the midterm after a presidential election, especially under a weak economy -- happened to Reagan in 1982, Clinton in 1994, etc. This explains 90% of what happened on Tuesday. Still, there were many odd things about election day. Ohio voters, for example, supposedly furious, just furious, about "bailouts" and the economy, elected Rob Portman, who was the chief architect of the Bush economy, and John Kasich, who was a big shot Wall Street banker over at Lehman Brothers, to U.S. Senator and Ohio Governor, respectively. U.S. voters, supposedly furious about the deficit and tax increases, took it out on Democrats even though Democrats have both cut taxes to record lows and also cut the deficit since Bush's final year (down to $1.29 trillion from Bush's $1.4 trillion). Weird.

Surprisingly, though, I would say I feel actually kind of proud to be a Democrat this week -- prouder than I usually feel. The reason is this: Democrats had to make a lot of tough calls and cast tough votes over the past two years. They voted on health care, economic recovery, credit card regulation, spending cuts to Medicare, and so forth, votes that are easily vilified by powerful interests groups and that are based on long-term policy impact over short-term political calculation. When a party has control over Washington, you can see what the party actually cares about, and I think the Democrats come out looking pretty good. The Republicans used their power, when they had it, to give the wealthy tax cuts, to cut regulation for corporations, and to start stupid wars. The Democrats used it to try to give health care to children with preexisting conditions, to help women get equal pay for equal work, to revive the American auto industry, to take care of veterans, and so forth. Rachel Maddow sums it up well:
Democrats had a choice when they became the governing party. When they won those last two elections and they took control of the two branches of government that are subject to partisan control in our country, they could have governed in a way that was about accumulating political capital with the primary goal of winning the next election. They could have governed in constant campaign mode. Or they could have governed in a way that was about using their political capital, not accumulating more of it, about spending the political capital they had to get a legislative agenda done, to tackle big, complex, longstanding problems that had languished.

The record of legislative achievement of the last 21 months was not designed to win the midterm elections and it will not win the midterm elections. The pendulum will swing back toward the Republicans and we'll go back to divided government again. The legislative agenda of the last 21 months was policy, not politics. It was designed to get stuff done for the country. And in that sense, it's an investment in long-term political reward, not short-term political reward, as Democrats expect after a list of accomplishments like this to be judged as the party that took on problems when it had the chance, even if they had to pay a short-term political price....The fact is, that Democrats got a lot done, a lot of hard stuff done on hard problems in a short amount of time.

If you have the time, you should watch Maddow's full set of comments here:


4 comments:

Monica said...

I've been silently requesting this from you, so thank you. And I'm assuming you are silently requesting a comment from me, so you're welcome.

It's interesting to me to listen to reactions to the election on both sides and hear that everyone interprets the results as whatever they want them to mean. So my interpretation is admittedly what I want the election results to mean, and not necessarily truth.

If we are to compare this election to past midterm elections then we must at least mention the numbers. Only 27 seats were lost in 1982 and 56 in 1994, while over 60 were lost this election. An unprecedented loss, so I'm not sure this explains 90% of the results.

In response to the deficit numbers you mentioned, are you not going to give Obama at least some credit for the $1.4 trillion deficit of 2009? His bailouts in 2009 contributed largely to that number, which was one of the reasons people were upset. On a related side note, have you heard Thanksgiving Point is receiving 15 million dollars of stimulus money to renovate their movie theaters? How is that going to stimulate the economy in Utah Valley? It is wasteful spending like this that gets voters angry. This is one example of many of how the 'stimulus' packages were full of waste.

And the vote to not vote on whether or not to extend the Bush tax cuts revealed the Dems true intentions. The Democrats did not want to be on record voting to raise taxes right before the election. I'm pretty sure that you personally want the Bush tax cuts repealed so I'm not sure why you are playing this card that the Dems are for keeping taxes low.

Saying that Democrats "cut taxes to record lows and also cut the deficit" is quite the spin.

Health care reform played a part in these results. People didn't want the health care reform. The Republicans and the country felt left out of its construction. And I believe Americans thought more attention should have been spent on the economic recovery than on reform that few wanted. Unintended results are already being seen. Insurance companies are warning of premium increases with each year of reform that passes, and companies and employers are talking about cutting health benefits as they get more expensive.

Anywho, the point I guess is that I WANT the results to be more about policy than anything else...

Kyle

Bryan and Ellie said...

Hi Kyle,

Yes, thanks for chiming in again.

Taking your points one by one:

1. You are right that in the House it was somewhat worse than usual. I suspect that is because the Bush economy was much, much worse than the economy in 1982 and 1994. Considering the depth of the problems, I am actually somewhat surprised that the losses the Dems suffered were only a bit worse than usual. In the Senate, however, the Democratic losses were less than in 1994 -- largely thanks to the tea party electing crazies.

2. The 2009 fiscal year began October 1, 2008, nearly four months before Obama took office. The budget for the entire fiscal year was largely set in place while Bush was in the White House. Read for yourself:

http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/dont-blame-obama-for-bushs-2009-deficit/

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/01/30/cnn-fact-check-is-the-annual-deficit-under-obama-12-times-the-deficit-under-republicans/

3. About the Thanksgiving point thing, the facts matter. It appears the decision to go that route was made by the Utah county commissioners (led by Republicans, I presume). By "stimulus," what you mean is a tax free bond, which amounts to a low interest loan from what I understand. I would have preferred to see this loan money go elsewhere. But still, I imagine a lot of money is going to be put into Utah county as part of this renovation. More work= more jobs = more spending = more work = more jobs, etc.

http://www.heraldextra.com/news/local/article_abe36298-b261-576e-999e-7add11bc0456.html

4. With respect to the taxes and deficit being "spin," I respectfully disagree. Look at the numbers yourself.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2010-05-10-taxes_N.htm

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3143

5. We could talk for a long time about unexpected consequences of ACA and whether it is really unpopular (most of the individual elements are actually very popular). I do agree that the Democrats did not do a good job of selling it and they may have erred in making the key provisions not take affect until 2014.

6. You nailed me on taxes. Yes, I would probably agree that we need to return to Clinton era tax rates, across the board. I like using the example of taxes, though, because it reveals a disconnect between what people think about Obama and the reality. If you read carefully, that will always be the context in which I talk about Obama cutting taxes.

--Bryan

Bryan and Ellie said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Monica said...

Thanks for the response Bryan. One last thought. This budget that we are squabbling (word?) over was made and passed by a Democratic House and Senate. We are calling it Bush's budget and Bush's economy, but the Dems have had power since 2007 in both houses. Obama still blames Bush for his woes on a constant basis. But the fact is, the budget that Obama "inherited" was one he voted for when he was a senator. I think its time we start taking responsibility instead of playing the blame game. And if I have to listen to the car in a ditch analogy one more time...

Kyle