Death Star Economics [Bryan]

Would the death star be economically feasible? Kevin Drum says yes:

There's been a lot of loose talk about the Death Star lately. I want to put it into a bit of perspective.

As background, some students at Lehigh University have estimated that it would be a very expensive project. The steel alone, assuming the Death Star's mass/volume ratio is about the same as an aircraft carrier, comes to $852 quadrillion, or 13,000 times the world's GDP. Is this affordable?

Let's sharpen our pencils. For starters, this number is too low. Using the same aircraft carrier metric they did, I figure that the price tag on the latest and greatest Ford-class supercarrier is about 100x the cost of the raw steel that goes into it. If the Death Star is similar, its final cost would be about 1.3 million times the world's GDP.

But there's more. Star Wars may have taken place "a long time ago," but the technology of the Star Wars universe is well in our future. How far into our future? Well, Star Trek is about 300 years in our future, and the technology of Star Wars is obviously well beyond that. Let's call it 500 years. What will the world's GDP be in the year 2500? Answer: assuming a modest 2% real growth rate, it will be about 20,000 times higher than today. So we can figure that the average world in the Star Wars universe is about 20,000x richer than present-day Earth, which means the Death Star would cost about 65x the average world's GDP.

However, the original Death Star took a couple of decades to build. So its annual budget is something on the order of 3x the average world's GDP.

But how big is the Republic/Empire? There's probably a canonical figure somewhere, but I don't know where. So I'll just pull a number out of my ass based on the apparent size of the Old Senate, and figure a bare minimum of 10,000 planets. That means the Death Star requires .03% of the GDP of each planet in the Republic/Empire annually. By comparison, this is the equivalent of about $5 billion per year in the current-day United States.

In other words, not only is the Death Star affordable, it's not even a big deal.

Tim vs. Jeremy [Bryan]

So, apparently the new sports crush is New York Knick point guard Jeremy Lin. I can't say I'm not also caught up in the hype: from what I have seen, Lin is great fun to watch and cheer for. Of course, we now get the inevitable comparisons to Tim Tebow. I have nothing against Tebow. He seems like a decent kid. There is no real comparison, though, in their respective Cinderella stories. This sums it up:

Tim Tebow’s commercials and personal branding speak about how everyone has always doubted him, but in reality, he’s has every privilege and advantage. He was home-schooled but was still allowed to play Florida high school sports. He was allowed to play in a college spread offense built around his rather unique skill set. He was drafted in the first round even though many scouts saw him as a mid- to high-round project. He is treated like an All-American superstar even without the game to back it up....Tim Tebow had the benefit of the doubt. Jeremy Lin was just doubted.

Life according to Stephen [Bryan]

Our son, Stephen, seems to have entered the stage of perfect cuteness. Not a day goes by when he doesn't say something clever. And his hair is just a curly mess of wonderful blond tangles. We can't bring ourselves to cut it.

Some recent stories:

Ellie went in after Stephen's nap to find that he had gotten out his old white diapers and spread them all across the floor of his bedroom. Ellie, shocked at the mess, asked him what he'd been doing. "It's snow, Mom," he said.

We were eating dinner the other night. Conversation was lagging a bit. Suddenly, Stephen pipes up, "Mom, are you thinking what I'm thinking?" We're not sure where he got that, but it was hilarious to be asked that by a two-year-old. We concluded that, no, we probably weren't thinking what he was thinking.

I was in the bathroom today getting ready. Stephen marches in and points at the shower. "What's that, Dadda?" he asks. "Um, that's the shower, buddy." I reply. He says, matter-of-factly, "That's where it rains." True, Stephen, true.

Ode to underground London [Bryan]

Sorry about the lack of posting lately -- still trying to navigate my new identity.

Anyway, a mesmerizing video below of the London Tube. For some reason, I love to watch people in transit. It is always interesting to think about who they are and where they are going. Also, there is some great footage of a guy in a bow tie.

Oyster Hunt from Garreth Carter on Vimeo.

Year in review [Bryan and Ellie]

A number of exciting things have happened to 8-year-old Nora in 2011. In the spring, both her grandparents were able to come to Ohio for her baptism. The baptism was a very sweet experience, and we were so grateful to have family there to share it with us. In the summer, Nora swam in our favorite lake and took tennis lessons. In fall, she started her gifted class (“Fun--like preschool!”(?)), continued piano, and kicked her first two goals in soccer. These goals were a long time in coming, so her father can be excused for jumping up and down and screaming like a maniac. Finally, Nora moved down to the new basement in a room all her own. She is in heaven.

Andrew is eagerly awaiting his 6th birthday this month. His big news is that he started Kindergarten, which he loves. He’s also taking pre-piano music class this year. Andrew lost his first tooth in Utah at his Warnick Grandparents’ home this summer. Our Tooth Fairy still found him, so she won’t be fired, despite her sometimes flighty and forgetful ways. His drawings of semi trucks, buses, airplanes, and Jeeps decorate our fridge and the fridges of his teachers and grandparents. Andrew is the resident rule-enforcer in our home, much to his sister’s chagrin. Not much is missed by his penetrating, petty-criminal-bustin’ gaze.

Stephen, at two, shifts rapidly between unbearably cute and just unbearable. On the cute side, we have his claims of having a beard (we think he means his upper lip), his love of hugs, his somersault attempts, his obsession with writing his name, and his big brown eyes and blond curls. On the unbearable side we have the typical toddler whining and tantrums in addition to the messiest eating we have ever experienced. (He is not done until he has pulverized every cubic inch of his food, and has eaten. . .any?) Stephen provides the comic relief in our family. The past few weeks, he’s taken to answering every question, “Yes, sir!”

Ellie and Nora joined a Mother-Daughter Book Club this year, and have had a great time reading and discussing some childhood classics together. In March, Ellie tagged along with Bryan to England for a conference at Oxford. (Thanks to the Merkley grandparents for making this childless trip possible!) Going to England has been a lifelong dream for Ellie, and she loved every minute--even the one where she mistook white wine for water (low lighting!), took a big swig, and just about spit it across the table onto Bryan’s distinguished British colleagues. She’s still running, albeit a little more slowly to keep pace with her favorite pregnant running buddy (sister Anna).

Bryan was consumed early this year with finishing the basement. He put up the drywall, sanded, hung the doors, put up the wood trim, and painted. He is pleased with how it all turned out and can often be found in the basement admiring his craftsmanship. Meanwhile, he gave professional presentations in St. Louis and Oxford, organized a conference in Dayton, spearheaded a major curriculum change in his college, published two papers, and finalized a publisher for his second book. He has recently become fascinated with wood-grilling. His peaceful and quiet life was abruptly interrupted last week by a new church assignment...bishop (a lay leader of a local LDS congregation). Time will tell if he survives to see next Christmas.

It's the end of the world (as we know it) [Bryan]

Most of the time, as you know, email is mundane and trivial. I received an email last week, however, that will change my life forever. Wednesday morning I returned from my morning jog to find a message with the subject line "appointment with President Welling?" My heart sank. It not only sank, it went crashing to the floor, shattering into a thousand tiny pieces. Ellie heard me exclaim, "Oh no!" We both knew exactly what it meant.

You won't fully understand this if you aren't Mormon. Some background may help: The first thing to know about my church is that major responsibility is placed on the local, lay leader of the congregation, a person that we call a bishop. The bishop is responsible for looking out for the physical and emotional well-being of the members of his congregation (hundreds of people) for five to six years. It is a major time commitment, almost a second job, a substantial lifestyle change. The second thing to know about the church is that if you, as a member, are asked to serve in a specific capacity, even a bishop, you do it. These are "callings." Accepting callings is a part of who we are.

You probably realize that the email was about me serving as bishop to our local congregation. I accepted the calling. Right now, I feel a strange mixture of happiness, sadness, and anxiety. Happiness, because it will be an honor to serve others (and God) in such a deep and meaningful way. I do want to be of real use in the world, and there is no better way than through something like this. Sadness, because I realize that some of the projects that are important to me must now be relinquished, some maybe forever, some temporarily. Blogging will slow, some books will remain unwritten. Anxiety, because of deep-seated fear of being unable to do, or do well, all that will be asked of me. Sometimes I feel like I have more questions than answers, more weaknesses than strengths, more folly than wisdom. I haven't slept well since Wednesday.

On Sunday, I was sustained by my congregation and officially "set apart" in the calling. Something happened during that meeting that was particularly meaningful to me. After I was sustained, I was asked to come and sit behind the pulpit. I slowly walked up and took a seat in front of the congregation. I looked out over the congregation, and saw many smiling and supportive faces (and a few surprised faces). I felt a bit numb. At that moment, though, I heard the organ playing what is perhaps the hymn that is most sacred to me, "As Now We Take the Sacrament." The personal significance of this hymn is a small fact about me that no one really knows, I suspect, but God. As soon as I heard that playing, I pretty much lost it, emotionally. Part of the hymn goes, "As now we praise thy name with song, / the blessings of this day / will linger in our thankful hearts,/ and silently we pray / for courage to accept thy will, / to listen and obey./ We love thee, Lord; our hearts are full. / We’ll walk thy chosen way."

Hearing that hymn, in that moment, was like God saying, "Bryan, I am here. Have courage." I can think of only a few precious moments in my life where it felt like God was specifically mindful of me and was speaking to me personally. That was one of them.

Is the world getting worse? [Bryan]

I often hear that things are getting worse and that "the world" is sliding into moral decay. I don't really believe that is true. The world from 1900-1974 (the year I was born), with the mass slaughter in two world wars, genocide on an unprecedented scale, brutal apartheid racism in the United States, and so forth, seems like a place that had no where to go but up, morally speaking. I collected a bunch of graphs that try to explain why I believe that things are actually not getting worse with respect to morality. Of course, it is possible that certain things might be worse. I'm talking about the big picture here.

Let's start with violent crime rates, which seem to be consistently dropping over the past 30 years.

Below are the categories of violent crime broken down more precisely. Everything, from murder, to assault, to rape, is down since the 1980s.


Trends in domestic violence are particularly tricky, since what gets reported is always fluctuating. Below is a graph, though, indicating that domestic violence has dropped over the past decade.


Below is a chart attempting to capture the presence of armed conflict in the world. The trend seems to be down over the past 20 years meaning the world is, on the whole, a more peaceful place. This is hard for us to conceive, because we ourselves have been engaged in minor conflicts since 2002. Overall, though, the trend is down.
Abortion rates seem to have slowly declined since 1980.

Divorce seems to be declining fairly significantly since it reached its peak in 1980s. (There are many reasons for this, of course, not all good.)

And well deserved [Bryan]

The U.S. Senate voted overwhelmingly last week to allow indefinite detentions of people suspected of terrorism, even if they are found in the U.S. This means that if the government merely thinks you are a terrorists, it can lock you away forever. You get no chance to defend yourself, no trial or due process. Unbelievable. Anyway, Jon Stewart gives this vote the nervous ridicule it deserves.

A truck I built [Andrew]

[Below is Andrew's (age 5) first blog post -- BW]

I made a Lego car and I also wanted you to see it. I would like you to see it on the computer. It has taillights that look realistic and also it looks like a real truck.

Nostalgia de la luz [Bryan]

I saw an amazing movie last weekend, Nostalgia for the Light, a film by Patricio Guzmán. It is a heartfelt documentary, more of a reflective essay, really, than an informational film. It deals with the seemingly different activities occurring in Chile's Atacama desert. On the one hand, you have astronomers taking advantage of the dry conditions to observe the ancient light coming from distant galaxies; on the other hand, you have mothers of the political prisoners who were killed during the reign of dictator Augusto Pinochet, looking for the thousands of bodies that were dumped in the same desert some 35 years ago. The film attempts to make the connection between these activities, namely, that they are both exploring the past in a way that situates our identities in the present.

Some of the stories the film tells are simply amazing: A woman describing the moment when she realized that a foot that had been unearthed was her brother's foot, and that he was never coming back. A young mother, my age, describing how the authorities had many years ago forced her grandparents to choose between revealing the location of her parents or losing her -- forced to choose, in effect, between the life of their child and the life of their granddaughter.

It was the images, though, the stunning visuals, that really struck me: The pictures of a simple Chilean house representing the sleepy Santiago world before the dark political turmoil of the 1970s. The fading pictures of some of the prisoners, before they were prisoners, full of hope and naive confidence that they could change the world, now dead. The footage of bodies, partially mummified by the dry desert conditions, being unearthed from their mass graves, with expressions of horror still frozen in their faces.

A sad, beautiful, haunting, and thoughtful film. Highly recommended.

Soccer stars [Bryan]

My experience having kids in youth soccer has been mixed. They've always been among the younger children on their teams, and play is usually dominated by one or two older boys, leaving our kids to be more like spectators than participants. Plus, I've found it is hard to instill in my kids a competitive thirst. Away from the playing field, we usually tell them to share, to play nice, to not push, etc. Expecting them to then be hyper-aggressive in sports seems almost unjustified, no matter how much I scream "ATTACK!" maniacally from the sidelines. Thus, until this season, neither Nora nor Andrew had even come close to taking a shot on goal, let alone actually scoring a goal. They have both played multiple seasons.

This year, though, was a qualified success. First, there is Andrew. Andrew loves to play goalie. He gets so excited when he sees the ball approach that he starts to jump up and down in the goalie box. Some of the other parents called him the "dancing goalie" for this very reason. Andrew, being somewhat timid on the field, had not really shown his skills all year, even in practice. The next-to-last game of the season, Andrew was goalie and picked up the ball around the goal. The coach told him to wait for a minute and then to carefully throw the ball to a teammate off to the side. Andrew, apparently not hearing his coach, instead decided, with a wonderful, even mischievous grin on his face, to open up a can of drop-kick-from-hell on the other team. He grabbed the ball, tossed it in the air, and kicked it as hard as he could. The ball took off, well past the midfield line, like a shrieking comet, soaring and flying, over the heads of teammates and opponents alike. The coach's mouth dropped open. Then, grinning, he said, "Well, that's okay, too."

Second is a Nora story. Nora is actually a very skilled player. She controls the ball well, and can kick with determination and strength -- that is, when she is mentally in the game. It is easy for her to defer to the bigger stronger boys on the team and, over the season, she seemed to become more and more timid. But then it happened. Nora was playing forward. She happened to find herself in the middle of the field. The ball was deflected in her direction and the other team's goalie was way out of position. Nora gave the ball a little kick, redirecting it toward the goal, knocking it gently into the net. GOOOAAAAALLLLLL! I was speechless and just stood up with my hands in the air. Nora looked back at me with a look that asked, "Did I just do that?" I was so happy for her. I made a big deal of it. She was somewhat embarrassed by my excited praise, afterwords saying that she didn't want to score anymore because she didn't like all the attention. Something changed, though, from then on out. Having tasted the thrill of scoring, of excelling, of sticking it to her opponent in a fierce battle of will, she would not be stopped. Her game really blossomed after that and she scored a goal in her next game, which was her last game, as well. This was after 3 years of not even taking a shot!

So, like I said, a qualified success. Perhaps even more than that.

On the urge to occupy [Bryan]

I'm not a huge fan of the "protest-left," so I have mixed feelings about the Occupy Wall Street people. I think their energies could be much better employed actually engaging in partisan politics, like the Tea Partiers did when they took over the agenda of a major political party.

However, there is no denying that the OWS folks have brought attention to a real problem. You don't have to be a militant egalitarian to acknowledge that a country is sick when it has such vast and growing income disparities as we have now. The top 1% has done really, really well over the past 30 years, much better than other income groups. This has led to an enormous amount of political power given to a small group of people (almost an oligarchy).

Meanwhile, conservatives' unrelenting goal seems to be to preserve and extend lower tax rates for these favored few -- notwithstanding our big deficits, crumbling roads and bridges, and a decimated public service sector. Mitt Romney's economic plan, to name just one example, would include a $6.6 trillion tax cut that would primarily benefit wealthy individuals and corporations (source), thus making the all of these trends even worse. Personally, I don't have anything against people who have made a lot of money, at least when it is made through their hard work and initiative rather than through social privilege and bailouts. I wouldn't mind making more money myself. Asking people who have done very, very well over the past 30 years to pay a moderately higher tax rate seems both fair and pragmatic. You don't have to "hate the rich" to see this is good policy. Conservatives who are concerned with social stability should recognize this as much as anybody.

Anyway, below I've prepared a fun array of charts (fun for me anyway) to illustrate what is happening and why.

The above chart tells the story told in terms of the growth of average income. The income of the top 1% (the red bar) has grown much more than the average family income (the blue bar) since 1979.

Above is roughly the same information broken down by income group. The income of the the top 1% (the red line) has grown by an astonishing 281%, much more than other groups.

Here is story told in dollar amounts. Again, massive growth for a few, while everyone else is flat.

The story by income share. Key point: The growth in income of the top 1% has come at the expense of other groups. A rising tide is not lifting all boats.

Here is one reason why this has happened: Tax rates for the wealthiest have plummeted lately, even as they make much more money.

Meanwhile, many corporations still pay no taxes. It is true that America on paper taxes corporation at a fairly high rate compared to other countries (perhaps too high). However, the loopholes and subsidies allow many corporations to pay a tiny fraction of their assigned tax rate.
Another reason for the stagnation of the middle class has to do with the declining influence of unions. Again, you don't have to think unions are perfect (I sure don't) to recognize that they have played an important role in making sure that everyone benefits from economic growth.

October Pictures [Bryan]

Nora was a "batterina" this year.

Stephen, a dragon, practicing his roar.

Andrew, a race car driver

We went to the Corn Maize at Darby Creek to pick out our pumpkins and partake of the quaint autumn festivities.

Stephen, as ghoul.

Our Halloween party.

15 hyper kids. Good times.

Ah yes, and some good eating. I made up some roasted pumpkin salad with goat cheese, arugula and mint. Also, some pork loin with burnt brown sugar, thyme, and orange confit.

You know nothing of my work [Bryan]

Someone posted my favorite scene from Woody Allen's masterpiece, Annie Hall, so I had to re-post it here. In this moment, a blowhard professor is pontificating about media theorist Marshall McLuhan and gets nailed as Allen pulls in McLuhan himself to set the record straight. Just so you know, I live in fear of just this: big shot mind scoldingly saying, "You know nothing of my work...How you ever got to teach a course in anything is totally amazing."