First 100 Days -- Updated [Bryan]

So, we have had 100 days with a new president. Fair or not, since FDR 100 days have been seen as the first time to realistically review a new president. So, here is my review.

Foreign Policy

Successes: One of the major reasons I supported Obama was to change the image of America in the world. It seems to me that, so far, this expectation has been fulfilled -- and then some! The most impressive symbolic acts so far have been the open town hall meetings, press conferences, and speeches he has given in Europe and Turkey. He has impressed foreign leaders, reporters, and citizens far and wide. This will all certainly pay off in the long run. He has already made important moves with Russia in the areas of nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament. His Cuba policy (easing travel restrictions and monetary transactions) is a welcome change, and relations appear to be greatly improving with Latin America. He seems eager to listen, rather than preach.

Failures: He has been unable to convince European countries to increase stimulus spending, which could prove to be very important in the economic recovery. I don't think this is as big a deal as some do, but it is still a failure.

Question marks: The Big Unknown right now is Afghanistan/Pakistan. Obama, as he promised, is sending more troops to the region. I am genuinely unsure of whether this is the best thing to do. The situation is both countries appears is worsening. It also remains to be seen whether Obama has the strength to stand up to the current far-right Israeli government and its odd supporters here at home, and put some real pressure on Israel to stop building illegal settlements in the West Bank (of course, he needs to continue to pressure Palestinians to stop rocket attacks, but that is a given).

Reading: "Signs of Spring: U.S.-Latin America Relations Thaw," Time.
Reading: "Obama in Europe: Overtures to Ovations," Financial times.
Reading: "9 Moments That Mattered," Atlantic
Reading: "Aided by Safety Nets, Europe Resists Stimulus Push," NY Times

Economy

Successes: The stimulus package was impressive. It was probably not big enough and too focused on less-stimulative tax cuts -- but the blame for that lies elsewhere. If anything, Obama might have made a mistake in trusting that Republicans would compromise in good faith. Obama's budget was a much more honest budget than we've had in the past (actually including the costs of war), and contains money for all the right priorities (energy, health care). Not bad at all -- good long, term investment.

Failures: Bailout money is still being spent in unseemly ways, thanks to incomprehensible behavior by Wall Street executives. Obama's response has been erratic and fairly weak.

Question marks: The big banks and the auto industry are still in big trouble. All of the options seem bad. Good luck with that, Mr. President. And, obviously, current deficits are not sustainable. Perhaps the big test of the Obama presidency will be, once the economy recovers, to bring these under control through a mixture of sensible spending reductions, tax hikes, and health care restructuring. He is already taking steps to do this, but we'll see.

Reading: "I give Obama an A, a B and an F," Rob Reich

Restoring the Rule of Law

Successes: Obama seems to have a plan in place to close Gitmo and he has slammed the door on torture practices. His decision to release the torture memos was brave and the right thing to do. Hooray!

Failures: His notions of the legal status of "enemy combatants" and of illegal wire tapping have been indistinguishable from Bush's. Boo! Boo! Boo!

Question marks: I am undecided whether prosecutions of the Bush wrongdoers should proceed in a vigorous way. I can see the need for it (we are a nation of laws, for heaven's sake), but I can also see it completely distracting from the rest of his important agenda.

Reading: "Report Card on Civil Liberties," American Prospect.

Overall, I think he has done a good job so far -- probably even an excellent job. Great challenges and questions remain.

Update:
Some other thoughtful reflections on the first 100 days:
Mike Tomasky: "100 days: Setting the tone for America"
Yglesias: "Obama is on track to accomplish major changes"
Daniel Gross: "The Patient is in Stable Condition"

Jeni's Splendid Ice Cream

One of the best parts about Columbus, Ohio, is Jeni's Splendid Ice Cream. You will never taste such a creative, tasty ice cream menu. My top five flavors:

1. Goat Cheese with Roasted Red Cherries -- Blue Jacket Dairy goat cheese with roasted Michigan cherries.
2. Thai Chili -- Krema Peanut Butter (a Columbus company), with toasted coconut, cayenne and coconut milk.
3. Sea Salt and Olive Oil -- Salt, oil, and pumpkin seeds (no, really, it is great).
4. Pistachio and Honey -- Toasted pistachios with Ashland County honey.
5. Strawberry Rose Petal -- Fresh strawberries, with a hint of real rose.

Springtime on Campus [Bryan]

Spring is my favorite season on a university campus. The energy starts to increase as people sense that the end of the year is in sight. Students begin to emerge from their dormitories and can be seen frolicking, sunbathing, and studying in the sunshine, while a crazy fundamentalist preacher simultaneously calls these young sinners to repentance -- unsuccessfully. I just got back from the central oval, where I sat on the grass, prepared my lesson for Monday, read philosophy, and took it all in. And right now, my office window is open to a blossoming tree just outside. The wind is gently blowing the subtle fragrance inside, and I'm snorting it in like a drug. This is what I signed up for. Life is good.

When it rains, it pours [Ellie]

Look at me posting twice in one day. . .

I've been thinking about nicknames lately. My theory is, either you're a nicknamer or you're not. I love nicknamers. There's something so chummy and at-home-with-the-world about them. If they don't like a person's name, well, they just come up with their own. They never question their right to do so. They are confident that people will answer to whatever they choose to call them. I've always had friends who were nicknamers, and while I've generally hated their nicknames, I've loved what I saw as the desire behind the nicknames--to express their affection in a comfortable shorthand. I wish I were a nicknamer.

I'm not. I've tried. I feel awkward and goofy. I'm pretty much unable to call anyone by anything but the name by which they were first introduced to me. My sons are Andrew and Stephen, not Andy or Steve (I don't mind if it happens some day, I just won't call them that). My nicknames for my kids are unimaginative and lame: two Buddies and a Sweet Pea. I can't even come up with a new nickname for Stephen--he just has to be "Little Buddy" to Andrew's "Big Buddy."

Stephen really ought to have his own nickname. He'll have enough hand-me-downs to deal with in his life. Suggestions, anyone?

A Riff on New Babies [Ellie]

Love it
-new baby smell
-his scrunchy face with its thoughtful expressions
-huge toothless smiles
-cuddling a sleeping baby on my chest
-tiny little shoes
-his chubby thighs and soft skin
-bath time
-knowing someone is so comforted by my presence

Could do without
-the feeling that I'm swimming in body fluids (One day recently I counted seven different body fluids--mine and others--that had been smeared on me during the day. Don't think about this too
closely. . .)
-smelling like sour milk all day every day
-changing shirts three times a day
-having my carefully constructed a wall of airy indifference ("It doesn't matter what happens at home while I'm out; I deserve some time off!"), crumbled by the guilt of opening the door to hear my baby screaming and see my husband looking weary
-the desperate feeling of really needing to nurse
-my incredibly limited attention span
-this terrible sugar craving which is sabotaging my efforts to lose the baby fat

Montreal [Bryan]

Last month was conference month for me. This year, my big conference was in Montreal, Canada. When I first went to these academic conferences, I felt very awkward. "Mingling" has never been an activity that I excel at, or even enjoy very much. Now, though, there is a critical mass of people that I know and like, and it always feels like a reunion to see them all again.

I liked Montreal, too. I spent an afternoon exploring the "old city," the highlight of which was a visit to the beautiful Basilique Notre-Dame de Montreal. It had a stunning interior -- perhaps the most beautiful church interior I've seen. I forgot my camera, but here is a nice shot I found elsewhere.


The next afternoon, I explored the Musée des beaux-arts de Montréal. They have a nice little representative collection -- Monet, Rembrandt, Picasso, Boucher, Renoir, Cezanne, etc.


I then hiked up the Royal Mountain (Mont Real in old French) -- the hill in the middle of the city from which it derives its name. Great view of the city (and my face, I might add).

360 Degrees

By the way, if you are ever in Quebec, be sure to order some Poutin -- french fries, cheese curd, and gravy. Yummy stuff -- "quintessential Canadian comfort food."

Warnicks go semi-vegetarian [Bryan]

I've long resisted the arguments of the various vegetarians I know. Vegetarianism seemed to go hand-in-hand with a style of elitist, latte liberalism that I don't like. Ellie and I were talking the other day, though, and we've decided to substantially cut down on our meat consumption. The number of reasons became too long to ignore. Here are the reasons:

(1) Economic: Meat is expensive. We could save money cutting down.
(2) Health: Meat isn't very good for you; vegetables are.
(3) Ethical: Factor farms, where most meat comes from, are still fairly cruel places. I am not convinced that animals have a "right to life," but I do think they have a right not to suffer.
(4) Religious: The LDS Word of Wisdom suggests that meat should be used "sparingly," while the Bible clearly contains a vegetarian ideal (pdf). It is time to take this seriously.
(5) Environmental: The meat industry is a leading contributor to global warming, water use, and deforestation. (Not that I am convinced that we will make any difference in this regard -- large scale reforms are needed for that, not personal virtue.)
(6) Taste: We like vegetarian cooking quite a bit.

So, there you have it. We won't cut meat out of our diet. It plays an important role in moments of family celebration (Sunday dinner, holiday meals, etc.). From now on, though, we want to eat meat with more conscious "thanksgiving" than as an unthinking habit.

Final Four Picks [Bryan]

March is probably one of my favorite months. Nothing beats the NCAA tourney. I can never get any work done the first Thursday of the action, when games begin at 12:00.

I'm sure everyone has been wondering about my Final Four Picks this year. Here they are: UNC, Duke, UConn, Kansas

I think UNC will win it all if they are healthy. If not, I'd go with UConn.

Xavier is my sleeper team.

Utah, OSU, and Illinois will lose in the second round. BYU and USU in the first.

You can take that to the bank.

Classic Monty Python [Bryan]

Movie Recommendations [Bryan]

Looking for some good movies?  Ellie and I both strongly recommend the following flicks we've seen recently: 1. The Lives of Others -- A German movie about living under the surveillance state in East Germany. 2. Children of Heaven -- An Iranian movie about a boy who loses his sister's shoes. (I know it sounds boring, but it isn't).

Budget Blogging [Bryan]

A dialogue on the federal budget:

Friend: So, Bryan, have you seen the Obama administration's proposed budget? Looks like a huge move to socialism to me. I warned you about him. He is Karl Marx incarnate.

Bryan: Everything about his budget proposals are in line with his campaign promises. Everything. The energy policy, the health care policy, the education policy, and tax policy...everything. I know actually following through on campaign promises is new to people, but that is exactly what he is doing.

Friend: But he is stealing from the rich to give to the poor. He is raising taxes on the wealthy -- those that invest and innovate. He is a communist I say!

Bryan: This is nonsense on stilts. Absolute and utter nonsense. Below is a listing of the top marginal income tax rate across the decades. The far right column is Obama's proposed increase (up to 39.6%). Even with Obama's tax increase, it is lower than it has been for most of American history. It is lower than most of the time it was under Ronald Reagan (it was a 50% rate for most of Reagan's presidency). Was Ronald Reagan a communist? Was Eisenhower, Truman, or Nixon? Notice that America often prospered under a much heavier tax scheme. People who think this is new or radical simply do not know what they are talking about.

Friend: But is it wise to raise taxes in a recession?

Bryan: No, you're right, it wouldn't be wise. That is why the tax increases (or, more accurately, the expiration of Bush's tax cuts) won't take effect until 2011. If the economy is still in recession at that point, the budget can be revisited.

Friend: Wouldn't a better policy be a spending freeze, like Republican Rep. John Boehner (House minority leader) has recently proposed?

Bryan: No, in fact that would be the absolute worst thing that anyone could enact. A recession occurs because, for whatever reason, people stop spending. Because people aren't spending, nothing can be produced, jobs are lost, and so forth. If the also government cut spending, things would be catastrophic. This is actually what Hoover did (and, to be honest, what FDR did in 1937), both with the terrible consequence we now call the Great Depression. The fact that Boehner proposed such a thing, frankly, shows the intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican party.

Friend: But I've also heard that the Obama budget would reduce the tax deduction that the wealthy can take for charitable giving. Won't that take money away from charities when they need the money the most?

Bryan: First, none of this will happen until 2011. Second, it simply reduces the deduction to rates to those present under Reagan (reduce it to 28 cents on the dollar for people earning over $250,000). Third, it has been calculated that the reduction in charitable would be about 1% -- a small price to pay for a start toward universal health care. Fourth, although this is not Obama's position, I have doubts about the wisdom of this deduction anyway. There is almost no accountability behind the groups that allow you to claim this donation.

Friend: But Obama is really adding to the budget deficit. In the long run, this will cause inflation and dry up funding for private investment.

Bryan: I don't think we should be worried about inflation right now. For one thing, there is no sign of anything approaching inflation. For another, we seem to know how to handle inflation fairly well through monetary policy.

True, there is big deficit over the next couple years. The Obama plan has a deficit of about $1 trillion in 2010 and 2011. Fighting two wars and a huge financial crisis doesn't help things. The deficit is projected to then drop to $533 billion by 2013. This still sounds high, but it is only about 3% of GDP which (I'm told) is fairly manageable. It is not even that big by historical standards.

Let's be clear: we are facing huge problems as a country, problems that every president since Reagan has let fester and get worse. It will take time and money to correct our course.

Remember, a budget deficit cannot be evaluated unless you figure out what you are getting for the deficit and if that spending supports long-term growth. Is the president's projected deficit a good investment or not? If we are making progress in areas like health care, global warming, education, infrastructure, and so forth, we are setting ourselves up well for the future. If we are funding pointless wars, we are not. I haven't read the whole budget, but there are lots of good things therein from what I have read, things that seem like really good investments. In the area of education, for example, there is more money for college education and for preschools. These sorts of investments will make a big difference.

Friend: I see the light now, Bryan. Thanks for enlightening me.

Baby doing well (with pics) [Bryan]

Baby Stephen is almost three weeks old already and doing great. He is sleeping 6-8 hours at night. He usually wakes up once and then goes right back to sleep for 2-4 more hours. This makes for a good night sleep for us! Stephen rarely cries and so far is an ideal baby.

One cute thing: Andrew has taken to reading him stories. Andrew sits next to Stephen, points to a picture and talks about it, and then puts the book right in front of Stephen's face. Picture below.

Stephen had his "baby blessing" in church this Sunday -- I thought of changing his name then to "Spencer Grant" but Ellie would have killed me. Grandma and Grandpa Warnick came out to visit us and it has been wonderful to celebrate with them.

Interested in a slimmer government? [Bryan]

There has been much talk lately about how we can reduce the budget deficit over the long run. Hmmm, let me think...

Triology Meter [Bryan]

This chart measures the "quality" of each installment of a movie trilogy. I can't say I disagree with any of it -- although, to be sure, I haven't seen all the Mad Max movies. Interesting how the third movie is always the worst, and the second is often the best. I wonder why that is.

I love charts [Bryan]

To be sure, much of how one reads this chart depends on what is meant by evolution being the "best explanation" of human life. But it was still shocking to me. We Mormons have a huge number of scientists among us, compared to others. We also have scriptural tools and resources that suggest the creation accounts are not to be taken so literally (we have 5 distinct creation accounts, after all, each one different from the last!). And yet, we are more fundamentalist than almost anyone on this issue. What's up with that? Yikes.

That captures the recent use of the filibuster by the Senate Republicans. Looks like the Republican strategy is this: obstruct anything and hope things get a lot worse. Country first indeed!

Americans seem to think the current health care system just isn't working.

Baby Pictures [Bryan]

Stephen arrives and is rushed to the NICU -- but was released quickly.

Here he is -- doing well now.

Nora is going to be a great big sister...

...and Andrew a great big brother.

Dad with that overwhelmed feeling.

He has arrived! [Ellie]

Just wanted to announce the birth of our newest little Warnick, Stephen Ray. He was born Tuesday, Feb. 10 at 5:39 a.m. He weighed 9 lbs. and a little bit and was 20 3/4 inches long. Just like I'd hoped, I went into labor myself--for the first time. I arrived at the hospital dilated to a 7! My water even broke!

Things continued to be exciting, though, and Stephen had to come out via emergency C-section. He was big, transverse, and distressed. Fortunately, all is well now.

More details and pictures to come.

Recent pictures [Bryan]

Due date is tomorrow!

After church

Andrew got a toolbox for Christmas, along with safety glasses.

Mitt is (probably) wrong [Bryan]

Apparently, Mitt Romney has been in the news again lately talking about the alleged benefits of tax cuts as economic stimulus. Normally, I would ignore this, but I know a lot of people who seem to respect his opinion. Well, here is a reading list for Mitt:

1. Steven Pearlstein (Washington Post business columnist) explaining the rationale for spending as stimulus in clear, concise, and accessible language.

2. The much-discussed congressional testimony of Mark Zandi (pdf) of economy.com -- see particularly page five for a comparison of the types of stimulus. Most tax cuts, he concludes, are ineffective as stimulus.

3. Analysis from the non-partisan Tax Policy Center. Doubts about most forms of tax cuts as stimulus are expressed here. Their helpful chart of the stimulative effect of the tax cut and spending provisions in the House and Senate plans are here -- complete with A-F grades.

4. Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman on the myths of the stimulus debate. See Kurgman also here and here. Krugman is a partisan, to be sure, and you can find Nobel Laureates disagreeing about these things, but Krugman seems to have been right about a lot of issues from the beginning.

5. Criticism from the Economic Policy Institute relating to the regrettable Senate "compromise" bill that increases largely ineffective tax cuts and reduces much needed spending in things like schools, research, state aid, etc.

6. On the nearly unanimous public support for new infrastructure spending.

The verdict? Mitt's analysis seems to go against what most economists are saying about stimulus. We need spending for stimulus, nearly everyone agrees that we need new infrastructure to stay competitive, so why not just do it?

Naming our baby [Bryan]

Ellie and I have had a difficult time naming our new baby (due date Feb. 9). Nothing seems to match right. We've played around with many names: Stephen Ray Warnick, Geoffry Bryan Warnick, and so forth. We are not entirely happy with what we've thought of.

My dad recently gave us a good idea, though. Some of you might know that I recently received a grant from the Spencer Foundation. It is a small, but prestigious award, and it may very well help me get tenure someday. We were very happy to receive a Spencer grant.

Now, every month Dad puts out a family newsletter and asks us by email what news we want to contribute. On my list of news items from our side of the family, I put down simply "Spencer Grant" remembering that Dad and I had talked earlier about the award. I was proud of it, and I wanted the family to know the exciting news. Apparently, though, Dad forgot about our earlier conversation, got confused about what I meant, and wrote in the newsletter that we had apparently decided to name our baby........Spencer Grant.

It has a nice ring to it actually.